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Predge - Wallet Intelligence

Top Polymarket wallets over a 7d or 30d window, ranked by EDGE, not by raw win rate. Win rate is computed from RESOLVED markets only (a trade wins when its side matches the final resolution), but ranking a wallet by win rate alone rewards backing favourites — winning a bet the market prices at 0.99 shows no skill. So wallets are ordered by edge_lower_bound = (Wilson-95%-lower-bound of win_rate) − avg_entry_price: how far the wallet beat the price it paid, damped so a tiny perfect record can't top a large one. Final ranking is by conviction_score = edge_lower_bound × ln(1 + total_volume_usd), scaling proven edge by the capital behind it (a real edge on $200k outranks the same edge on $6k), with log diminishing returns so size alone can't buy the top. Rankable wallets need >= 10 trades AND >= $1000 total volume in the window (a skin-in-the-game floor — cent-sized longshot bets otherwise manufacture a real-looking edge) plus at least one decided trade. Each entry: address, Predge score (0-100 or null), win_rate, avg_entry_price, edge, win_rate_lower_bound, edge_lower_bound, conviction_score, decided_trades, trades_count, total_volume_usd, avg_position_usd. Honest degradation: {"insufficient_data": true, "reason": ...} when the dataset is too young. Query params: window (7d|30d, default 30d), limit (1-100, default 50).